With 40% of the American agricultural workforce undocumented, farmworkers and their allies prepare to resist Trump’s calls for an immigration crackdown.
Expulsion of undocumented immigrants may reduce labor pools in agriculture, food distribution.
As the Trump administration continues its crackdown on illegal immigrants across the U.S., the nation’s food supply chain could face the same challenges the United Kingdom encountered when it left the European Union in January 2020.
Brexit, the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU, disrupted the country’s labor pool and created instability across the agriculture and food supply chains, according to Barbara Guignard, a principal at Efficio.
In the U.K., Brexit’s impact on the labor market hit quickly, leading to workforce shortages and even empty supermarket shelves in fresh produce aisles, she said.
“Brexit wasn’t about an illegal workforce — it was about restricting access to anyone who wasn’t British,” Guignard said. “Before Brexit, European workers didn’t need a visa to work in the U.K., so many seasonal workers returned each year for the harvest. But with Brexit introducing new visa requirements, many left and didn’t return. This was further exacerbated by COVID-19, which restricted movement across borders and made it even harder for farms to bring in seasonal labor. Romania, for example, had been a major source of agricultural workers, but by the time Brexit was fully enforced, the combination of new immigration rules and pandemic-related disruptions had already created severe labor shortages.”
Guignard warned that a similar loss of immigrant labor in the U.S. could cause major disruptions, particularly in the agriculture and food processing sectors.
“We’re already seeing movement from Trump on illegal immigration, and the impact on harvesting key crops like citrus could be significant. If production drops, it will have a ripple effect across processing, transportation, and the broader economy,” she said. “A reduced harvest means less food for processing, which affects supply chains and logistics. Ultimately, this could push up food prices and impact consumers nationwide.”
Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain consultancy, has offices in the U.S. and Mexico, with its headquarters in London. Guignard, based in London, leads large-scale international procurement transformation projects across multiple sectors, specializing in food, retail, and manufacturing.
President Donald Trump has declared illegal immigration a national emergency since returning to the White House for his second term on Jan. 20. The Trump administration has ramped up its mass deportation efforts, expanding the use of expedited removal across the country.
It’s unclear how many undocumented immigrants have been deported over the past four weeks.
According to estimates from the Center for Migration Studies, over 8 million illegal immigrants work in the U.S. economy, about 5% of the workforce. Some of the highest totals of undocumented migrants work in construction (1.5 million), restaurants (1 million), agriculture (320,000), landscaping (300,000), and food processing and manufacturing (200,000).
John Walt Boatright, director of government affairs for the American Farm Bureau, said immigrants play an important role in the food supply chain.
